Luck of the Draw (Part 2)

Please keep in mind that I was in Austin this weekend and had no access to a computer. I had to e-mail Newman part one and have him post it on Friday.  I did the same thing with Part 2, but Newman never quite got around to posting it.  So when I say "yesterday," I am referring to Friday.


Yesterday I told you who I expect to move on from the group stages of World Cup 2010.  Today, I'll extrapolate those findings and pick a winner.  Why pick a World Cup winner when the tournament is seven months away and we don't even know who will make it into the knockout stage?  Why the hell not?

France vs. Greece

Again, the Greeks play this stodgy, nearly unwatchable brand of soccer, but the French National Handball team is just way better and more athletic. Les Bleu should me through.

England vs. Ghana

I misremembered yesterday when I said that Ghana is the best African team this year, as Newman pointed out. The Ivory Coast is clearly the best team. However, what I was misremembering was that Ghana was the best African nation in Germany in 2006. The Black Stars were the only African nation to qualify for the Round of 16. They eventually fell to Brazil 3-0. I don't see much else happening differently in 2010. England will advance over Ghana.

USA vs. Germany

So much anger here on my part. I remember 2002 in South Korea.  My friends Mase and Ozzy and I woke
USA vs. Germany in the quarterdinals. That American team had somehow upset Portugal in the group stage, then tied host South Korea to move on to the quarterdinals. They took down archrival Mexico 2-0 in the Round of 16 to meet Germany in the quarterfinals. I already hated the Germans because of their goalie Oliver Khan and something else...hmmmm...oh yeah, World Wars I and II. Anyway, Michael Ballack scored for the Germans and all seemed lost until the Americans bounced a slow header toward an open goal mouth late in the game. The game should have been ties 1-1 except that German defender Torsten Frings blocked the shot...with his right wrist and forearm.  The referee on the field ruled that the obvious handball was unintentional and that the US would receive no PK.  Too bad the Germans can't say the same for repeatedly attacking France and killing millions of Jews..."it was unintentional so we're not really at fault and should receive no punishment." No. It doesn't work that way. The US got robbed.

That will not be the case here. Following a semifinals appearance and utter domination in qualifying, the Germans will destroy the Americans, especially since we'll likely be missing forward Charlie Davies AND defender Oguchi Onyewu. 2006's Golden Boot winner Miroslav Klose should have a field day. Germany advances.

Mexico vs. Argentina

This is another angry rematch of two teams with a history. I was in Mexico in 2006 when the Tricolores advanced to the knockout round to face Argentina.  My host family and I watched intently as the match went to extra time. It looked certain to head to PKs until Maxi Rodriguez put a miraculous bicycle in the upper 90 of the Mexican goal. It was like someone had just been shot. I don't think I was allowed to discuss soccer for 2 days.

I mentioned yesterday that Argentina has Messi and not a whole lot else. They're very talented, but his ability is the only thing that overshadows Diego Maradona's mania.

Sidebar: I just finished reading a book on Hugo Chavez and I am convinced that a reality TV show with him and Maradona would be incredibly entertaining. The two of them could just walk around and shout ridiculous things angrily in spanish at undeserving passersby. Then they could insult women and maybe even steal a Latin American election or two. My point is the two men are equally bombastic and essentially insane. The difference is that one is in charge of a soccer team while one runs a country with long range ballistic capabilities just south of the most developed countries in the Western World.

OK, back to business. Argentina is better than Mexico because Mexico is aging and still confused despite pulling it together to beat the US in qualifying and make it into the 2010 draw. Their run ends here with less drama.

Netherlands vs. Paraguay

George: "Its not Holland. It's the Netherlands"
Jerry: "Holland IS the Netherlands."
George: "Then who are the Dutch?!"

That's a small clip from Seinfeld, but really, who are the Dutch?"

Newman mentioned it yesterday that the Dutch have a habit of being upset by lesser teams. I'm still picking Holland because the Netherlands appears to be superior. I have little or no evidence of this other than a great performance in Euro 2008 in which they were upset by Russia. Get the dilemma?  I'll just pick the Netherlands, but don't be surprised if the Men of Orange get upset.

Brazil vs. Honduras

Honduras is lucky to be here and Brazil is a juggernaut. Brazil easily. Also, Newman, Brazil is a 5-time champ... not 4.

Italy vs. Cameroon

The Italians are known for their D. The Cameroonians are overmatched. This should be a win for Italy

Ivory Coast vs. Spain

Cote D'Ivorie will be coming off a mortal struggle to advance out of the Group of Death. Spain has two great forwards in Xavi Alonso and Fernando Torres. Ivory Coast is really good, but I have a feeling they'll be beaten down from knock down dragout matches with Brazil and Portugal. I pick Spain.

Quarterfinals:
Netherlands vs. Brazil

These are two very talented teams offensively. Watching the Brazilians come on wave after wave against USA in South Africa last summer really left a lasting impression on me. I'm picking Brazil here but when you get this deep with two great soccer nations, anything can happen.

France vs.  England

England has Owen, Lampard, Gerrard, Beckham, and more. France has Thierry Henry's left hand and quite possibly should not even be here. I can't count the French out because they've been Lucky Pierres lately (please look that term up on Urban Dictionary. Please. ), but I like the English to advance in this 100 Minutes War.

Argetina vs. Germany

Argentina is still in the tournament due to a very favorable draw. That ends when they face ze Germahns. The Luftewaffe overwhelms Argentina much the way England did in the Faulkland Islands War. Diego Maradona disappears to Tierra del Fuego with Hugo Chavez. The world explodes 2 weeks later.

Italy vs. Spain

This is going to be an awesome match, and I really hope it happens. You have the defensively gifted Italians against the offensively explosive spaniards. You have a long track record of success and a team defending a title against a long track record of unmet expectations and a team that has won little (Euro 08 aside). The Spanish are ranked by FIFA as the world's best team. It's like a matchup of the Steelers and Colts (not entirely, but go with me on it for comparison's sake). I'm going to the Steelers aka the Italians. The Spanish will just have to keep wondering what could have been.

Semifinals:
England vs. Brazil

This is a more even match than it was in 2002 when Ronaldinho popped one over the head of English keeper David Seaman (chuckle). It makes sense to pick Brazil here, but Brazil did have some trouble early in CONMEBOL qualifying (as of the summer of 2008 they were not a qualifier. ). I'm going to pick England with a header from Peter Crouch off a David Beckham set piece carrying the day.

Italy vs. Germany

It's a rematch of the 2006 semifinal which Italy won 2-0 in Dortmund to depress an entire host nation. I think the opposite will happen here. I'm picking Germany over Italy in a game where we begin to see that Italy's staunch back line will look drastically different in 2014. The Italian defense is good, but it will be too old to deal with the youth and speed of the Germans. Germany moves on.

Third Place:
Italy vs. Brazil

If only Brazil could have played Italy in the semis, they might be playing in the finals. In a rematch of '94 World Cup final in Pasadena, I take the Brazilians to overwhelm a tired Italy and win 3rd place.

The Final
Germany vs. England

England has won one World Cup in 1966. A unified Germany has NEVER won the World Cup although West Germany has won it multiple times, most recently in 1990. I think Germany will win this match, but it's really a toss up. I know this is at least a match I would like to see. But I can't wait for the whole World Cup to come. I can't wait for June 11, 2010. I can't wait.