Friday, December 4, 2009

Luck of the Draw (Part 1)

It should be a testament to how far soccer has come in this country that the draw for the 2010 World Cup was broadcast live in a 3 hour block on ESPN 2. America used to not care a bit about soccer, let alone understand the way the draw worked enough to televise it. Not the case anymore.

And seemingly in order to repay American investment, the Americans were given the most favorable draw in recent memory. I'll get to that later. At a glance, here are the groups and what I believe you can expect from the games, which begin Friday June 11 in South Africa.

How can you mention the World Cup Draw without mentioning how ungodly hot Charlize Theron is? Good lord, book my ticket to SA if women look half that good. She's almost as hot as David Beckhams haircut is bad...almost.

2010 World Cup Draw


Group A:
South Africa
Mexico
Uruguay
France

France needs to go on a gambling run in Vegas immeditely. They have caught an unbelievable bit of luck in the past month. To get into the World Cup, they used an obvious double handball to leave Ireland out in the cold and qualify for the 2010 draw. Now they're the clear favorites advance from this group. The luck of playing the host nation, South Africa cannot be understated. They'll have a near guaranteed win over the Springboks. Before that, they'll take on a team in Uruguay that faded down the stretch of CONMEBOL qualifying and just made the draw. Finally, they'll face Mexico, the second best team in the weak CONCACAF region. The French will take this group with Mexico qualifying for the round of 16 right behind them. So long South Africa! Join your fans in the stands.

Don't underestimate the emotional spark playing a World Cup game on home turf can give me a team. France won the tournament as hosts in 1998, Korea made it to the semifinals in 2002, and Germany also lost in the semifinals in 2006. I'm not saying the Hosts will beat Le'Bleu, or go nearly as far as hosts past, but you have to give them more credit than this. They'll be a tough out.

Group B:
Argentina
Nigeria
South Korea
Greece

Argentina narrowly avoided a play-in game with Costa Rica prompting manager Diego Maradona to go into a profanity-filled tirade extolling the advanced state of Argentine futbol. They have the world's best player in Lionel Messi, but not a ton of other pieces. They are certainly not a sure thing to progress to the next round. Mainly, they'll have to contend with 3 other selections that are all wild cards, at times showing unbelievable talent, at times playing an inept brand of the beautiful game. Nigeria will be the most athletic team in the group. Their talent is raw and undeveloped, but batten down the hatches and pray for help should they get organized and attack for 90 minutes plus stoppage time. South Korea has limited big name talent (San Ji Park plays in the Premier League) but they have a talented group of forwards that took them to the semifinals in 2002 as the host nation and allowed them to advance from the group stage in 2006. They are no easy victory for anyone in this draw. Greece is quite possibly the world's most frustrating team. They have extremely limited offensive capabilities, but woe to those who fall behind the Greeks. After scoring a goal, they've been known to pack 11 in the box on defense and abandon an attack completely. They rode this stingy strategy to a massive upset victory in Euro 2004 and used it again to qualify for 2010.  The biggest question will be which of those three teams can put it together for three straight games to advance alongside Argentina. I like the Greeks in another upset of smaller proportions than Euro 04.

Random musings on Group B. Argentina's baby blue and white striped jerseys are the slickest in the the tournament. Can't express how exciting it is to see what hairstyles are trendy in Asia in June 2010. South Korea always provides a good look into those crazy Easterners, whether it be a Sonic the Hedgehog style spike or a Rufio induced red hair dye. I love it. I'd rather just take a nap instead of watch Greece play. They are pretty similar, except I actually get rest in the former. Do I know anything about Nigerian soccer? Of course not. And I question the validity that Mitch does either.

Group C:
England
United States
Algeria
Slovenia

Somehow, the Americans got exactly what they wanted. In ESPN's draw coverage, reporter Rob Stone was hanging out in a bar on the Eastside of Manhattan. The American fans in attendance broke into chants of "We want England!"  Well we got it.  Aside from being placed in Group A with the host nation, England is a great scenario for the Americans, especially with star David Beckham having played against the better part of the American roster for the last 3 years. Few surprises with that matchup. Then comes Algeria, the final (and so worst) African qualifier. The most talented Algerians (like Zenadine Zidane) emigrate to France, leaving the cupboard somewhat bare there. Slovenia is the smallest country to qualify for the world cup. Aside from that fact and a highly organized style of play, they have never made much of a name for themselves in international play. The Yanks and Brits will advance here, with the winner on day one determining who's the winner and who's the runner up. Unfortunately, I like the more talented and better midfield of England to win the revolutionary rematch. But that may be fortunate as we shall see.

Not sure how it matters that Americans have played against Beckham. Aside from sporting the worst haircut in professional sports and having the voice of a female porn star, the dude is just a figurehead for the national team. The best players for England are unquestionably a healthy Gerrard and Lampard. Nevertheless, England has more of a chance of adopting the American flag than not making it through this group. That brings us to the Americans. I am sure everyone is very optimistic after the Red, White and Blue beat Spain and got two goals up against Brazil in the finals of the Confederations Cup. You know what high expectations mean though, don't you? America always seems to falter under these types of circumstances. They should get through but I don't see Slovenia and Algeria as any sort of cream puffs. Slovenia beat a very talented and well coached Russia team while Algeria beat the African League champions in Egypt. 

Group D:
Germany
Australia
Ghana
Serbia

Germany hosted the last World Cup in 2006 and lost on PKs to Italy. They are just as strong this time around and should mow down the rest of this group with typical German efficiency. Ghana is Africa's best team and has a legitimate chance to be the first ever African World Cup winner. Australia and Serbia simply can't match up with the stronger teams in the group. Germany will take this group over Ghana.

Where are you getting these soccer facts? Ghana is currently the fourth highest FIFA ranked African nation, a whopping 18 spots below Cameroon. Whatever, they have sick jerseys. Germany rolls on like a Panzer. 

Group E:
Netherlands
Japan
Cameroon
Denmark

The Dutch side looked like the clear favorite to win Euro 2008, annihalating oppenents by four and five goals inthe group stage. I picked them to win the tournament with ease. Then they were inexplicably upset by Russia when the Ruskies scored 2 goals in extra time. Russia 3 Holland 1 still strikes me as a bigger upset than most people realize in the Western Hemisphere. The Dutch are REALLY good, and certainly better than the other three teams in this group. The battle for runnerup is a toss up. I'll go with the physically imposing if unorganized Cameroonians to take second.

If you haven't learned by now that the Dutch always look amazing in group play only to lose in some fashion in the next round, than, well my friend, you haven't been watching the Oranje for too many years. They are notorious for the flame out (although losing to a solid Russian team in Euro is not a huge upset, especially in a sport like soccer). Cameroon is also the best team in Africa and could give the Netherlands a run for first place. Denmark and Japan? Whatever.

Group F:
Italy
New Zealand
Paraguay
Slovakia

Italy looks weak heading into it's title defense. It features an aging back line and suffered an embarrassing defeat to Egypt (who did not qualify for the draw) that allowed the US to move forward in the Confederations Cup this passed Summer.  They'll still win this group, but can their D match their O? We'll see. New Zealand is a rugby nation and Slovakia is a European throw in. Paraguay will advance as the group's runner up.

Italy never looks too imposing until World Cup time, so I won't count out the defending champion Azzurri from making another run at the trophy. Losing to Egypt, who won the African Cup, is not really that embarrassing. They also got handed a group which is easier than Britney Spears. Slovakia will probably have a different name in a few years and New Zealand could field sheep and still be as dangerous to advance. Paraguay is a solid representative from South America and will advance as well.

Group G:
Brazil
North Korea
Ivory Coast
Portugal

Hola Grupo de Muerte! The North Korean side will probably get outscored 12-0 in their three games next summer. Too bad Kim Jong Il can't play for them, since the 5-foot, Zoolander-haired, nuclearly inclined, sociopathic leader is also a sports prodigy (or so North Korean media will tell you). Since Spain won Euro 2008, Portugal has become the new Spain. This is not a good thing, as the Spanish were notorious for under achieving despite impressive talent. We all witnessed the wrath of Brazil in their second half comeback against the Americans to win the Confed Cup final 3-2 over the US. They are impressive. Then there's the Ivory Coast, an African anomaly in that they have the best-managed talent and athleticism on the contienent. The Brazilians will Win the group, and I like Didier Drogba and the Ivory Coast to continue to allow Portugal to underachieve.

Yes, in any language this is the Group of Death. Brazil and Portugal are two of the most talented teams in the world as well as being two of the most fun to watch. Ivory Coast is dangerous and has one of the worlds premiere players in Drogba. It's really a Russian roulette on who the odd team out will be in advancing. I caught Brazil play at the Confederations Cup and what I saw in the second half against the US was truly dominant so I can't see the 4 time World Cup champions not moving on. That leaves the Ivory Coast and Portugal to duke it out for second. I see Portugal putting their talent together to advance.

Group H:
Spain
Honduras
Chile
Switzerland

The Swiss will be the odd team out in this spanish-speaking group. Nevermind, they'll be content being the happiest nation in the world with their overwhelming amounts of money and chocolate and lack of war. One week is all they get in South Africa, so it's nice to know they'll have that to go home to. I had the pleasure of living in Chile in the summer of 2008, so I am happy to see the Chileans in the World Cup. But having watched them try to qualify last summer, I simply was not impressed with their ability or style of play. I have to say the opposite for Honduras, which upset Mexico and is quite a feisty bunch. I like the Hondurans to advance alongside the obvious favorite in World #1 Spain.

Looking at this group made me yawn. Spain, Switzerland. 

So their you go:

1A: France
2A: Mexico

1B: Argentina
2B: Greece

1C: England
2C: USA

1D: Germany
2D: Ghana

1E: Netherlands
2E: Cameroon

1F: Italy
2F: Paraguay

1G: Brazil
2G: Ivory Coast

1H: Spain
2H: Honduras

I'll be back tomorrow with my picks to win the whole thing and hold the most underwhelming trophy in sports

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