Thursday, October 22, 2009

NFL Sick 16 Week 6: Finally It's Not a Crapshoot

The Oakland Raiders have 2 wins this season and the Tennessee Titans have none.  Wow.  Just had to put that out there before I began.

There are only 32 teams in the NFL and only 53 men on every roster.  Those players come from every conceivable place in the country and many countries in the world, but the NFL is a cruel bottleneck, and most of the crap players get filtered out.  What you are left with is the best football talent in the world stepping on the field week in and week out.  With such a sieve system put in place as well as a tightly regulated salary cap, you can expect pretty even competition week in and week out.  For the better part of football history during my lifetime, Sundays have brought close, even matchups.  You may have teams go 15-1, 14-2, or 13-3, but throughout the season you generally saw chinks in each team’s armor that led you to believe any team could beat any other team on any given Sunday.

Through 6 weeks of the 2009 NFL season, each team has played at least 5 games, and it is clear to me that the previous statement no longer holds true (unless it is applied only to the NFC West).  This year, there are certain “Haves” and certain “Have Nots.” The Haves continue to hammer the Have Nots week in and week out.  There is not even competition this year between the Haves and Have Nots.  There is only even competition within those two groupings.  When the two play each other, it gets ugly (ask the Titans about their 59-0 loss in Foxboro on Sunday).

With that said, I’m going to take a look at power rankings through Week 6.  I have chosen only to rank 16 teams.  I’ll be picking 6 teams from each conference that I believe will make the playoffs and 2 teams from each conference that are lurking and could also make the playoffs if certain things fall into place.

16.San Diego Chargers (2-3)


MLC: This team really needs to make up its mind.  Either they are going to wake up and be team they were from last year that used a late surge to make the playoffs and then beat the Colts in the first round, or they’re going to continue to underachieve.  I’m a Redskins fan, so believe me, I know that if anyone can make a team underachieve, it’s Norv Turner.  The man has proven over and over again that he cannot be trusted as a head coach.  I’d love to know what he does in an interview to get these jobs, because people tend to look at the wake of destruction he left in Washington and Oakland and just completely ignore it.  He cannot and should not be a head coach.
     
That said, you know who would go great here?  Mike Shanahan.  Think about it.  He would be stepping into a talented offensive team with a good, cocky young quarterback.  He would have two good running backs (I’m counting LaDanian Tomlinson because his career would get a second life with Shanahan’s blocking schemes) and a great tight end.  On top of that, there’s the revenge factor.  Two games a year against the team that fired him and hired a 32-year old. 


In fact, I’m putting the Chargers on this list ahead of the Jets, Jags, and Texans because, with a good coach, they can go places.  But they’re just barely hanging on with Norv Turner.



JNG: Remember that awkward, gangly girl in high school who you looked at, weren't that impressed with at the time, but intuitively something about her made you think, 'She is going to be really hot when she gets older.'? A friend and I actually made a bet over this once. I thought a younger girl was going to be really good looking the older she got, the more she grew into herself. He politely disagreed. $5 was laid on the line. As I graduated high school and college years progressed, I kept tabs on said girl, just expecting that one day she'd be the knockout I had predicted.6 years have passed since that bet was made and I think I owe my friend some money.


The Chargers are that girl.


Just like her, year in and year out numerous football fans and myself salivate over their talent and potential. Year in and year out we are let down. Despite Rivers (who is one of the game's best quarterbacks), its just not going to happen. Puberty's over.



15. Miami Dolphins (2-3)


MLC: I know it’s only one game, but Chad Henne looked damn good against the Jets didn’t he? I watched him throw the deep ball to Ted Ginn, Jr. as Ginn beat four defenders and thought, “That’s how it’s supposed to look.”  Suddenly picking Ginn as their first rounder made sense because they finally got a quarterback to take advantage of his speed.  Henne made some throws that Pennington could never have made, including that late out route near the goal line to Greg Camarillo that would have fluttered over there and been knocked down had it been Pennington throwing it.


Now that Ronnie Brown looks to be at top speed, this team could jump out of its doldrums and start a run.  But for me, they’re number 15, because playing the first place schedule that they are, I wouldn’t expect them to do any better than 8-8, which will keep them out of the postseason.

JNG: Sorry for not taking the bait on the Chad Henne's of the world. A few good games mean nothing in the long run for a young quarterback (just ask Mark Sanchez). I don't expect the 'Fins to do much besides annoy me with more "Wildcat" news articles and coverage and finish 7-9. At best.


14.Philadelphia Eagles (3-2)


MLC:3 wins over crappy teams and a loss to the Raiders.  McNabb looks like a Pro Bowler, then the offense doesn't move.  Good teams are consistent.  The Eagles are not.  Thus, I leave them out of the playoff race, but they could sneak in if they play the Redskins twice a year...and then do.

JNG: Pardon me for not endorsing a team that just lost to Jemarcus Russell. Expect the expected from Andy Reid and the Eagles: one hot streak, a few losses to bad teams (a la the Raiders), Philly fans oft publicized hot and cold relationship with McNabb, and Michael Vick continuing to do nothing. They'' probably make the playoffs. They'll definitely lose. Its Philadelphia football in the 21st Century.


13. Arizona Cardinals (3-2)


MLC:What to make of the NFC West?  The Cardinals did the same thing last year, then won this crapfest at 9-7, then went to the Super Bowl and nearly became world champs (if Santonio Holmes didn't have unusually long fingers and toes).  Well, they still look like an 9-7 team, but the way that offense works they can hang with anybody.  We'll see if that record will make the playoffs again this year.

JNG: I'll go ahead and admit it: Larry Fitzgerald is going in the man crush file. Whether it be the Predator-esque hair or the infectious smile, his sure hands or his polite demeanor, #11 for the Cardinals is one of the best things going for the NFL. How great is it to have a world class receiver who provides no drama, doesn't seek publicity, and goes about doing his job each and every week as best as he can all while looking like a guy who, you know, actually enjoys what hes doing. Isn't that what we want out of our professional athletes?

I got goosebumps last year watching the Super Bowl on his long TD reception where he was watching himself on the big screen as he sprinted down the field. He thought he had just won the team ring. I wish he had.

Of no consolation I am sure, I'll irrationally peg the Cards for a 10-6 season and NFC West title just because of my admiration for him.


 


12.Chicago Bears (3-2)


MLC: Right now the Bears have their franchise quarterback, but who cares?  He's has all the bad qualities of Brett Favre and too few of the good ones.  If he was saying "Aww shucks" after all those INTs, Chicagoans might be able to laugh it off with him.  But right now, he's just a snot-nosed kid from Vandy who can't lead his team on a long drive without giving the ball away.  After week six he has 10 TDs and 7 INTs.  Kyle Orton? 9 TDs and 1 INT.  And the Broncos are 6-0. And the Bears gave Cutler a contract extension.

JNG: I know that most people who follow football know Jay Cutler has Type 1 diabetes. However, I don't think people neither give him enough credit for playing with this condition nor fully understand what this means. It is a very serious, and fatal if not properly treated, condition that requires a lot of diligence and patience on the part of the affected. With symptoms like fatigue, extreme thirst, and blurred vision, I find it remarkable that Cutler has persevered to become an "elite" NFL quarterback. I still think Cutler is a jerk and a bit overrated, but you have to tip your hat to him.

That being said I like the Bears. They should have beaten the Falcons the other night and aside from a no-show in Lambeau to  start the season, they have been playing solid, consistent football. Unfortunately though, the NFC North is the best division in football this year, so it will be interesting to see how their season unfolds.



11. San Francisco 49ers


MLC: Again, in the season long crapfest that is the NFC West, this team is like the best-looking turd in the bowl. They're in the playoffs right now, but how far will Shaun Hill take them?  I think I just answered my own question.

JNG: I don't necessarily agree with my colleagues interesting metaphor or his take on the Niners. This team will play hard and finish in the 7-9 to 9-7 range but barely miss the playoffs. Going forward though, I think things are going in the right direction for the franchise. Singletary is a good, hard-working coach who will get the most out of his team while young players like TE Vernon Davis and LB Patrick Willis will be Pro Bowlers for years to come, Now let's see if Crabtree of Texas Tech lore will be a star in the league. I say yes.


10. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-2)


MLC: Pittsburgh is an intriguing team.  They look like the ideal Super Bowl hangover team, so this is where Mike Tomlin earns his money.  The great coaches keep their teams focused when they have every reason to lose focus.  He has to keep them from getting complacent.  Oh, and Polamalu coming back and propping up this struggling D might help too.  Big test against the Vikes this week.

 JNG: Mike Tomlin played football at William & Mary in my home state of Virginia. That's about all I have to say about the 2009 Pittsburgh Steelers.



9. Baltimore Ravens  (3-3)


MLC: I know, I know.  The Ravens are 3-3 and the Steelers are 4-2.  But the Ravens have lost three tight games to three good teams.  They have a complete running game, an emerging stud in Ray Rice, and a quarterback who is either figuring things out or doing a really good job fooling everyone.  Then there's that defense.  It's not as good as years past, but Ray Lewis and Ed Reed on the field at the same time has to count for something.  This is a team, unlike the Titans, that will probably end up just where it was last year.

JNG: Oh, the irony of life in the NFL. Since their Super Bowl victory in 2000, the Ravens have annually sought a decent offense to match their dominant defense. As this decade turns into the next one, could it be that the Ravens will have the opposite problem? 

The Ravens O is loaded with young talent. Joe Flacco is putting up fantasy numbers in his sophomore season and Ray Rice is starting to come into his own. But the Ravens D, already having lost coordinator and defensive mastermind Rex Ryan to the Jets last offseason, is struggling. Names aside,  Ray Lewis, Ed Reed and company are aging.

A few years ago no one would ever believe the Ravens could put up 31 points like they did at Minnesota last Sunday...and lose. Well, they lost. 


8. Cincinnati Bengals (4-2)


MLC: I never thought the Bengals would be up this high, but you have to hand it to them: they've earned it.  They've won every division game.  They've beat Baltimore on the road.  Cedric Benson gained 100 yards against the Ravens, and that never happens.  I expect them to fade, because they're just not as complete as Baltimore nor as experienced as Pittsburgh, but for now they have to rank above both teams.

JNG: Do you realize how easily the Bengals could be 0-6 right now? Even though the fact is they are not, I don't see this team pulling out every close game they are in...which seems to be every game they are in. Barring a complete breakdown, which who are we kidding could very well happen (it's the Bengals!), No matter what though I think this season will be considered a success in Cincy since the defense has finally progressed and Carson Palmer is back to being Carson Palmer.

A few quick  thoughts on Chad Ocho Cinco: His father can't be happy, I can't wait till he marries, opposing corners have to be laughing to themselves when they guard him, especially when they get burnt and are left looking at his jersey, and I have no idea how he doesn't have his own reality TV show yet. No idea.





 7. Atlanta Falcons (4-1)


MLC: Matty Ice deserves his nickname.  My brother was bitching about drafting Jason Elam.  He said he thought the offense would be good enough to move it down the field, "...but this offense is so damn good they just score touchdowns."  He's right.  The Falcon's offense has studs all over the field.  Ryan at QB, Michael Turner at RB, Roddy White at WR, and Tony Gonzalez at TE.  They also have a defense that has been serviceable except for a loss against the Patriots.  But Tom Brady can be tough to contain.

JNG: Maybe I am getting lazy (I am) but I don't have much to say about the Falcons. They're a serviceable team that will feast on the Panthers and Bucs in their division. Three of their wins have come against teams with a combined record of 7-8 and their win against the Bears was a little bit lucky. So I don't know where the Falcons stand right now other than you can pencil them in for atleast 2 more losses (Saints) and that Matt Ryan is good.


6. New England Patriots (4-2)


MLC: This isn't the Pats from earlier in the decade, but don't sleep on them.  Any team with Tom Brady is pretty good.  They're hurt, but they're still better than the Dolphins, Jets, and Bills.  They'll make the playoffs, but with all the injuries they may just be first round fodder.

JNG: I hate the Patriots just as much as I hate the Yankees. I just do (They're throwback AFL unis are looking damn good though).


5.Denver Broncos (6-0)


MLC: Man do I hate this team, but you simply can't argue with results.  I keep expecting Kyle Orton to fall apart. I keep expecting Knowshon Moreno to get hurt (like all Broncos running backs seem to).  I keep expecting Brandon Marshall to get arrested.  None of it happens, and they keep rolling along.  They beat the Patriots, Chargers, Bengals (albeit on a miracle play), three teams that are on this list.  If they're defense keeps blitzing every play and Elvis Dumerville keeps playing like Reggie White, then Orton and the O don't have to do much.  We'll see what happens when the play the Giants and Steelers after their bye.

JNG: Lets not get too ahead of ourselves about a team who was one very lucky, albeit exciting, play from starting the season 0-1. And while I am grateful for any play that elicits an on-air orgasm by Gus Johnson, I can help but wonder how fast the Broncos season would have unraveled if they had lost that game. Of course they didn't lose that game and they have gone on to beat the Patriots and Chargers in back-to-back weeks, so maybe I am wrong. But I have seen the Broncos collapse too many times to give you any optimism here.



4.New York Giants (5-1)

MLC: I think everyone expected a pretty close game between the Saints and Giants, so it was a pretty big shock to see the Boys in Blue get killed.  The shocking thing was, it wasn't fluky or weird, it was a legitimate big win.  The O-Line protected Brees and he threw all over the vaunted Giants D.  Right now the G-Men look like they can beat anyone except for the Saints and Colts.  So it's probably a toss up between them and...

JNG: The Giants either got exposed against the Saints or the Saints are just that good. I'll lean towards the latter. The Giants are a well-rounded and disciplined football team that will rarely beat themselves. They'll run away with a weak NFC East no questions asked.
 
3.Minnesota Vikings (6-0)


MLC: This team made the playoffs last year with Gus Frerotte as its QB.  Say what you will about Brett Favre, but he's damn sure better than a guy who is most famous for jamming his neck during a TD celebration (Redskins fans feel my pain).  Jared Allen is an absolute force on the D-Line too.  This team does not look unbeatable, but they look better than most of the teams they'll play.

JNG: The 2009 Vikings are pretty damn good. They can beat you in a number of ways. Both their defensive and offensive units are without any glaring weaknesses. Adrian Peterson is Adrian Peterson. Percy Harvin and Sydney Rice are exciting, young receivers with great futures. Jared Allen is toying with offensive linemen like a man possessed. Who am I missing?


Ah, yes #4. I have followed Brett Favre since my age was still in single digits. I am 23 now and the guy still hasn't missed a start since I was learning cursive. I cannot believe it. Part of me thinks his arm will tire, the magic will wear off and he'll have one of his token 3 or 4 interception games where he single handedly kills his team. But a bigger part of me doesn't see that happening. The Vikings have enough weapons to leave the load on Favre's shoulders relatively light.

And as evidenced in that 'He didn't just do that..HOLY SHIT HE JUST DID THAT!' touchdown throw to win the 49ers game, the old man can still carry the load when he has to. Most importantly, as Bill Simmons would tell you, he still has fun doing it.


2. Indianapolis Colts (5-0)


MLC:  I think the bye week came at a bad time for this team.  It took a few weeks, but Austin Collie is becoming a latter day saint...well he's already one of those...I mean he's becoming a latter day Brandon Stokely/Wes Welker type.  Manning now has him, Pierre Garcon, and Reggie Wayne.  They do need to run the ball better, but with as Peyton Manning proved against Miami, time of possession and a running game can be totally overrated.

JNG: Peyton Manning is about as good a quarterback as I will ever see. Ever. Regardless of his supporting cast, you can bet on his team finishing with double digit totals in the wins column and an appearance in to the playoffs. 

That's where things get tricky. With only 1 Super Bowl victory in all those appearances, you got to think Peyton is downright desperate for one, if not a few, more rings. His team's are always good just based on the fact he is on him, but luckily this year his cast seems good enough to add to his greatness.


1. New Orleans Saints (5-0)


MLC:  Drew Brees looks like a Hall of Famer.  Pierre Thomas is healthy and gives them a solid running game.  The defense withstood a tough test from a good Giant offense.  I would put this team up against anyone in the NFL right now.  

JNG: When I was growing up my grandfather was the football announcer and long standing patron (my dad, uncle and aunt all went there) for a local high school, the Hermitage Panthers. My dad and I used to go to the games on Friday nights and sit in the box with him. Sometimes he would let me sit on his lap and say a thing or two over the loudspeaker, which when you are young is a very big deal. After the games he would go down on the field and mingle with all the players who from my point of view at the time all seemed to adore and respect him. These were some of my first sports memories.

In the early 90s I was at one of these games, in the box, and I vaguely recall all the members of the box gushing over one of the Panthers players, touting his future. Obviously, you are very curious, and very annoying when you are young. I must have bugged my grandfather about it all game because when the horn sounded he grabbed my hand and took me directly to the field to the meet the player being swooned over. I don't remember any specifics, but I remember the moment. The player: Darren Sharper. 


All these years later and Sharper is leading the rejuventated Saints defense as well as leading the league in interceptions. Call me a bandwagon fan, but I'll be pulling for him and the Saints all year long.

Sharpers plaque hangs on the wall at the Hermitage High Wall of Fame....right next to my grandfathers.



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